Palestinian State Recognition Key to Regional Stability, Analyst Argues
A comprehensive regional settlement in the Middle East, including normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, requires addressing the Palestinian issue, according to analyst Nadav Tamir. While the Trump administration plans a regional security framework against Iran and further Abraham Accords, Tamir argues these efforts will be incomplete without a strategic objective: a regional arrangement involving 23 nations and the establishment of a demilitarized Palestinian state.
The Arab Peace Initiative of 2002, offering full normalization with Israel for a Palestinian settlement, provides a potential framework. Tamir suggests the US administration should adopt this goal, with Israeli government cooperation. Elements of this plan, such as ending hostilities in Gaza, demilitarizing the strip, establishing a new civilian government, and offering a political horizon for Palestinians, are already being discussed.
Tamir proposes that US recognition of a Palestinian state early in the process, coupled with regional and international security guarantees, would be a crucial 'game changer' lending credibility to the initiative. Following potential elections in Israel, a regional conference in Riyadh could formalize this integrated approach, acknowledging the interconnectedness of regional problems and solutions.
Drawing parallels to the 1991 Madrid Conference, which initiated a joint political process, Tamir notes the current regional infrastructure, Abraham Accords, security cooperation under CENTCOM, and a shared interest against Iran, is stronger than ever. However, he stresses that without resolving the Palestinian question, which has become more central than before, regional aspirations will not be realized.
Such a conference would allow Israel to gain regional security, the US to share the burden of regional policing, Palestinians to achieve statehood, and Arab nations to integrate into a stable Middle East. Tamir concludes that if Trump aims for a Middle East with a weakened Iran, cooperative allies, expanded Abraham Accords, Saudi-Israeli normalization, and resolved conflicts, the Israeli-Palestinian solution must be the cornerstone.
