Russian-Speaking Immigration May See Reduced Knesset Representation

The upcoming 26th Knesset may feature the lowest representation of immigrants from former Soviet Union countries in recent years. An analysis by "Walla News" based on average poll data suggests only three Russian-speaking lawmakers might be elected: Avigdor Lieberman, Yulia Malinovskaya, and Alex Rif, a significant drop from the seven currently serving. Lieberman leads his "Yisrael Beiteinu" party list, with Malinovskaya at fifth place. If "Yisrael Beiteinu" secures eight seats, current Deputy Speaker Evgeny Sova could also enter the Knesset. Alex Rif is positioned 15th on the new "Yashar!" party list.

The representation of Ethiopian immigrants is also projected to decline. Only Yaffa Tebeje is currently in a viable position on the "Yashar!" list. Pnina Tamano-Shata, an incumbent Ethiopian-Israeli lawmaker, is second on Benny Gantz's "Kachol Lavan" list, but the party is currently polling below the electoral threshold, casting doubt on her entry into the next Knesset.

These shifts occur amidst a broader renewal of the parliament, with an estimated 48 new lawmakers, or about 40% of the total, potentially entering. This is close to a historical high, with only the 21st Knesset having more new members (49). Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar!" party is expected to contribute the most new members, with 18. Other parties like "Be'ahdut" (Naftali Bennett), "HaDemocratim," "Likud," and "Amcha Yisrael" are also projected to bring in new faces.

The next Knesset could also set records for female representation, with an average of 34 women expected, surpassing previous highs. The "Bloc of Change" is projected to have significantly more women lawmakers (25 out of 54 seats) compared to parties supporting Benjamin Netanyahu (7 out of 51 seats). A notable disparity also exists in the military and security backgrounds of candidates, with the "Bloc of Change" featuring several former high-ranking IDF, Shin Bet, and Mossad officials, while parties supporting Netanyahu have fewer such figures.

These potential changes, including a record number of women and a significant influx of new members, could reshape the demographic makeup of the Israeli parliament. However, the projections are based on current polling data and could change before the October 27th elections, especially without accounting for potential seat adjustments under the "Norwegian Law."