Russian Immigration Representation in Knesset May Halve, New Parliament to See Major Overhaul

The upcoming 26th Knesset may see the lowest representation of immigrants from former Soviet Union countries in years, with projections suggesting only three Russian-speaking lawmakers could be elected. This is a significant drop from the seven currently serving. The projections, based on an average of recent polls, indicate Avigdor Lieberman and Yulia Malinovskaya, both running on Lieberman's "Yisrael Beiteinu" party list, are likely to secure seats. If "Yisrael Beiteinu" gains an eighth mandate, current Deputy Speaker Evgeny Sov will also enter the Knesset. A new political figure, Alex Rif, is positioned to enter parliament on the "Yashar!" party list.

The representation of the Ethiopian-Israeli community is also projected to decline sharply. Currently, only Yafa Tevedje is in a potentially viable position on the "Yashar!" list. Pnina Tamano-Shata, a long-serving Ethiopian-Israeli lawmaker, is on the "Blue and White" list, but the party is currently polling below the electoral threshold, casting doubt on her return to the Knesset.

This reduction in immigrant representation occurs amidst a broader, significant renewal of the parliament. Approximately 48 new lawmakers, or about 40% of the total, are expected to be elected, nearing a historical high. The "Yashar!" party is anticipated to contribute the most new members, with 18 projected. Other parties like "Be'ahad," "Democrats," "Likud," and "Amcha Yisrael" are also expected to bring in new faces.

The next Knesset could also set records for female representation, with an average of 34 women projected to be elected, surpassing all previous parliaments. A notable gender disparity exists between political blocs, with the "Bloc of Change" expected to elect significantly more women than parties supporting Benjamin Netanyahu.

Furthermore, a stark contrast is emerging in the military and security backgrounds of candidates between the "Bloc of Change" and parties supporting Netanyahu. The "Bloc of Change" features several former high-ranking military and intelligence officials, including a former IDF Chief of Staff and a former Shin Bet head. In contrast, parties aligned with Netanyahu have very few candidates with comparable backgrounds.

These potential shifts, including record female representation and a significant influx of new lawmakers, could reshape Israel's demographic and political landscape. However, the projections are based on current polling data and could change before the October 27th elections, especially considering the potential application of the "Norwegian Law" which allows ministers to temporarily resign their seats to allow others in their party to enter the Knesset.