Arab World Watches Israeli Elections With Trepidation, Desiring Change

Despite official ties and covert cooperation with Israel, many in the Arab world are hoping for a political shift in Israel, according to an analysis of regional discourse. While no Arab leader is publicly commenting on the Israeli elections to avoid interfering, the underlying sentiment favors a change in Israeli leadership. This desire stems from the past three years of Israeli policy, perceived by many in the region and globally as unbalanced, driven by "fantasies," and prone to destabilizing adventures in the Middle East.

Key regional anxieties include the potential displacement of Gazans into Arab countries, the expansion of Israeli territory, the support for separatist groups seen as a threat, a tendency to initiate wars, entanglement in prolonged conflicts, the exacerbation of religious tensions through actions at holy sites like the Temple Mount and the Cave of Patriarchs, and the de facto annexation of the West Bank, extinguishing hopes for a Palestinian settlement. This contrasts with the narrative of a regional alliance against Iran and the expansion of Abraham Accords, while Saudi Arabia insists on Palestinian issue resolution for normalization.

Palestinian commentator Nabil Amr stated that Netanyahu's "ambitions for Middle East hegemony and the realization of 'Greater Israel' have failed even in his smallest theater of operations [Gaza]." He added that Netanyahu is focused on securing another term and evading legal challenges, causing significant damage to Israel. Concerns are heightened by the possibility of Netanyahu initiating a military action to improve his image or disrupt the elections, particularly in the West Bank, where settler violence is escalating.

Jordanian researcher Dr. Ayman Hnait explains that a continued government with figures like Feiglin and Winter would compel Jordan to prepare for war and reconsider its relations with Israel. The "voluntary migration" plan for Gaza residents proposed by Ben-Gvir has drawn strong condemnation, with eight Arab and Islamic nations issuing a joint statement denouncing Israeli politicians' statements on forced transfer. Palestinian researcher Ahmed Issa noted that a victory for the current coalition would mean abandoning Gaza settlement efforts for displacement, turning "Plan 710" from a party document into government policy.

Lebanese commentator George Issa observed little difference in Israeli leaders' stances post-October 7th, suggesting the political climate prevents moderate leadership. However, the prevailing assumption in Arab discourse is that a new government, even if not ideal, would be preferable to the status quo. The integration of Saglovich into the Ra'am party has also been met with difficulty in the Arab world, seen as a move by Abbas to join a coalition, which some believe contradicts the principles of the Muslim Brotherhood.