Israel's Refusal to Negotiate for Hostages May Have Fueled Hamas's Attack, Expert Claims

For nearly nine years, Israeli officials attempted to broker a deal for the return of two civilians and the bodies of two soldiers held by Hamas in Gaza, but negotiations repeatedly failed to yield results. Dr. Gershon Baskin, who was involved in the efforts, suggests that Israel's consistent refusal to compromise may have contributed to Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar's belief that Israel only understands force.

Baskin, who coordinated his efforts with Israeli officials Lior Lotan and Yaron Bloom, maintained that a negotiated agreement with Hamas was the only practical way to bring the four Israelis home. However, the Israeli stance offered minimal room for negotiation, with repeated assurances that another "Shalit deal" would not occur and that no prisoner serving a life sentence would be released. This effectively meant Israel was unwilling to release individuals convicted of murdering Israelis, a key demand for Hamas.

Baskin proposed creative alternatives, including the release of prisoners with cancer or severe illnesses, those over 65, or individuals who had already served over 20 years. Even the case of a Palestinian prisoner who had served nearly 40 years was considered, though complicated by his Israeli citizenship. All these proposals were rejected by Israel.

The Israeli position remained largely unchanged, with a formula of "bodies for bodies" for the soldiers and a perceived lack of public pressure regarding the two civilians, Avraham Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, compared to the case of Gilad Shalit. By May 2023, Baskin concluded that a deal was impossible due to the inflexibility of both sides.

While Baskin emphasizes that this does not excuse Hamas's atrocities on October 7th, he argues that Israel's strategic failure must be examined. If Sinwar concluded that Israel only understands force, Israel's repeated refusal to engage in difficult negotiations, even when holding Israeli civilians and soldiers' bodies, may have played a role in shaping that perception. Baskin warns that refusing difficult deals does not eliminate the price, but rather postpones it, potentially leading to a far more catastrophic outcome.