Ex-National Security Chief Explains October 7 Failures in New Book

Former National Security Council head Giora Eiland has authored a 200-page book, "How on Earth Could This Have Happened to Us?", seeking to explain the catastrophic failures leading to the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks. The book delves into why thousands of Israelis were left vulnerable and questioning the military's whereabouts during the assault, which resulted in a devastating loss of life.

Eiland's work, published by Yedioth Books, distinguishes itself by focusing not on the events themselves, but on the underlying causes. He analyzes the situation through philosophical, psychological, and sociological lenses. Philosophically, he argues that a flawed interpretation of reality created a narrative detached from facts, which ultimately led to disaster. He points to intelligence assessments in mid-2023 indicating an increased war probability due to Iran's regional actions, yet intelligence focused on Hezbollah, overlooking threats from the south.

Psychologically, Eiland identifies a tendency in Israel to over-rely on the perceived expertise of intelligence professionals, leading to a "cognitive closure" where ingrained beliefs prevent acknowledging new information. He cites the "Jericho Wall" plan, which detailed preparations for an attack, as an example of intelligence that was ultimately ignored. This overconfidence, he suggests, meant military leadership did not adequately prepare for the southern threat, even without political directives.

Sociologically, Eiland examines organizational culture, contrasting it with the Yom Kippur War where junior commanders took initiative. On October 7, he notes, there was a wait for a division commander's orders, with responsibility being deferred. Eiland contends that if the army had functioned as expected, with proper defensive positions and readiness, a smaller force could have repelled the initial attack. He places at least 75 percent of the blame on the military.

The book's concluding chapter, "What Next?", emphasizes that "organizational culture eats strategy for breakfast." While Eiland acknowledges that some necessary changes, such as canceling universal "quiet hours" and joint holiday leaves, have been implemented under the current Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, he stresses that this is only a partial solution.