Ex-National Security Chief Blames IDF for October 7 Failures in New Book
Former National Security Council head Giora Eiland has authored a 200-page book, "How on Earth Could This Have Happened to Us?", seeking to explain the catastrophic failures leading to the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack. Eiland, a respected military commentator, focuses not on detailing the events themselves, but on understanding the systemic reasons behind the assault that left thousands of Israelis under siege and resulted in a heavy loss of life.
Eiland analyzes the failures through philosophical, psychological, and sociological lenses. Philosophically, he argues that an "erroneous interpretation of reality" created a "narrative detached from facts." He points to intelligence assessments in mid-2023 indicating an increased likelihood of war, particularly from Iran's "ring of fire" around Israel. However, intelligence focused on Hezbollah, and despite having good intelligence on that front, crucial data from the southern Gaza border was overlooked, leading military leadership to neglect necessary preparations.
Psychologically, Eiland identifies a tendency in Israel to over-rely on the perceived expertise of intelligence professionals, leading to "cognitive closure" where experience breeds an unshakeable belief in one's own correctness. He notes that even the detailed "Jericho" plan for attack preparedness, known to intelligence, failed to prompt action. Sociologically, Eiland criticizes the organizational culture, contrasting it with the Yom Kippur War where junior officers took initiative. On October 7, he states, the division commander, Brig. Gen. Avi Rosenfeld, failed to mobilize his forces despite warnings and instead deferred responsibility upwards.
Eiland asserts that if the army had acted as expected, waiting for prime ministerial orders would not have been necessary. He contends that properly constructed defensive positions and a minimal rapid response force of two helicopters, an infantry battalion, and several tanks could have halted the initial assault. "Honestly, at least 75 percent of the blame lies with the army," Eiland writes, concluding that "organizational culture eats strategy for breakfast."
While acknowledging that some necessary changes are being implemented under the current Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, such as canceling universal "quiet hours" and joint holiday leaves, Eiland stresses that this is only a partial solution.
