Spain's Political Turmoil Offers Hope for Thawing Israel Ties

Despite official tensions between Jerusalem and Madrid, a complex reality is emerging beneath the surface of Spanish politics regarding relations with Israel. At a recent international briefing forum in Jerusalem, representatives from the Spanish-Israeli organization ACOM presented an assessment suggesting that the current Spanish government's policies do not reflect the broader public sentiment. Angel Mas, president of ACOM, stated that identifying the Spanish people with Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's stances would be a mistake, attributing the government's adversarial approach to internal political considerations.

Mas emphasized that a democratic change of government in Spain could rapidly alter bilateral relations, citing a precedent from the José María Aznar era. This perspective comes amid unilateral actions by Madrid, including recognition of a Palestinian state, an arms embargo, and participation in bans on marketing products from Judea and Samaria. Tensions escalated further following sharp exchanges where Sánchez accused Israel and Russia of spreading disinformation, a claim he later retracted.

Beyond the political arena, Spain's legal system continues to impose sanctions on individuals who protested against Israeli representatives. Over 100 administrative sanctions and fines up to 60,000 euros remain in effect for disruptions during the Vuelta a España cycling race, with seven individuals facing criminal proceedings. Public sentiment has also been affected, with a reported 14% rise in antisemitic incidents and cities like Barcelona severing ties with Israel. However, ACOM argues that the Spanish public largely does not share these extreme views.

Academically, while 20 Spanish universities declared a suspension of ties with Israeli entities, an investigation revealed these institutions continue to participate in 28 European research projects alongside Israeli entities. Universities are reportedly hesitant to formally break agreements due to fears of substantial fines, loss of funding, and legal challenges, including those filed by ACOM.

The key to potential improvement in relations lies in Spain's complex political landscape. Sánchez's coalition government faces chronic instability, relying on regional parties for support, which necessitates controversial political compromises. Meanwhile, the center-right, led by the People's Party (PP), holds a consistent lead in polls. A change in government is seen as strategically significant for Israel, as the PP traditionally maintains a pro-Western stance and has criticized Sánchez's approach, potentially leading to a more balanced Spanish policy that views Israel as a legitimate partner.