New Haredi Parties Emerge, Netanyahu Faces Shifting Alliances
Political correspondent Avi Moscowk analyzes the emergence of new ultra-Orthodox parties in Israel, suggesting that while several new lists have formed, only "The Haredi Public" led by Moti Leitner shows significant political activity, though it is not expected to approach the electoral threshold. Other new parties include Achi, Tzeva Shachor, and Ha'Kahal, which Moscowk largely dismisses as "political curiosities." Leitner's party, he notes, targets a modern and young Haredi demographic and has invested heavily in its campaign, despite lacking mainstream Haredi rabbinical support. Moscowk estimates Leitner's list may garner 15,000 to 20,000 votes, with the true measure of its success being the number of votes it receives below the threshold.
Among the established Haredi parties, United Torah Judaism aims for eight Knesset seats but Moscowk considers seven more realistic, with six also a possibility. Shas, meanwhile, is actively campaigning, focusing on traditional voters with messages of unity, tradition, and faith, while also addressing the conscription issue. United Torah Judaism has yet to launch its main campaign, awaiting the finalization of lists and resolution of internal disputes within its constituent factions, Agudat Yisrael and Degel HaTorah.
A significant shift Moscowk identifies is the Haredi parties' reduced commitment to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Unlike previous elections, where parties like Degel HaTorah remained steadfastly with Netanyahu, Moscowk states, "This time the situation is different." The prevailing sentiment in United Torah Judaism is, "We are not committed to the bloc; we will listen to offers." While aligning with Netanyahu and the right-wing bloc remains their initial preference due to shared values on religious and traditional matters, Moscowk anticipates a genuine contest for Haredi support if election results leave no bloc with a clear path to forming a government without them.
Moscowk further distinguishes between United Torah Judaism and Shas regarding potential coalition partners. He suggests United Torah Judaism has hinted at the possibility of joining forces with Benny Gantz if no alternative emerges, whereas Shas has avoided similar statements due to the strong ties many of its voters have with Netanyahu. Within Shas, Moscowk observes a divergence between traditional voters, who lean towards Netanyahu, and some within the Haredi-Aharaki sector who are critical of unfulfilled promises, particularly concerning the conscription law.
Regarding the recent turmoil within Degel HaTorah over list changes, Moscowk notes a desire among senior Haredi figures and rabbinical authorities to quickly resolve the dispute, which they believe has damaged the party and the Lithuanian Haredi public. While he deemed the decision to replace Knesset members correct, he criticized the "disastrous" public execution of the decision, which created an impression that advisors and spokespeople were driving the agenda. Moscowk refutes claims that the decision lacked clear rabbinical backing, asserting that Rabbi Dov Landau made the final decision, which had been in principle for a long time. Efforts are now underway to quell the controversy and mitigate the damage, with concerns that the handling of the crisis could alienate voters.