New Poll Shows Netanyahu Closing Gap with Gantz, Far-Right Gains

A new Channel 12 poll, the first since party lists closed for the 26th Knesset elections, indicates that Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar" party would be the largest with 25 mandates if elections were held today. Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud follows with 21 mandates, while Naftali Bennett's "Yachad" party secures 13. The "Democrats" led by Yair Golan are weakening, dropping to 10 mandates, with Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu gaining one mandate to reach 9.

Within the blocs, the opposition maintains 68 mandates, and the coalition holds 52, mirroring previous polls. However, significant shifts are occurring within the parties. Ofer Winter's "Am Israel" party is projected to gain mandates, reaching 5, largely at the expense of voters who previously supported Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir's "Religious Zionism and Identity" list, which dropped to 5 mandates. Religious Zionism and Identity itself is seeing a significant portion of its previous voters move to "Otzma Yehudit," which is attracting 37% of those who voted for the joint list in the past, and 13% of former Likud voters.

In head-to-head matchups for Prime Minister, Eisenkot leads Netanyahu 42% to 38%, though Netanyahu has narrowed the gap. Netanyahu also leads Bennett 40% to 37% and Lieberman 40% to 27%. The poll also highlights that "Otzma Yehudit" is attracting the largest share of first-time voters.

The poll, conducted by Midgam Research and Consulting, surveyed 504 respondents and has a maximum margin of error of 4.4%. Voter turnout is projected at 71%, an increase from the previous poll.