Iran Doubles Fuel Prices, Sparking Fears of Widespread Protests

Iran has doubled the price of gasoline for the third tier of consumption, raising it from 5,000 to 10,000 Iranian tumans per liter. The prices for the first two subsidized tiers remain unchanged. Iran operates a tiered fuel pricing system: the first tier allows up to 60 liters per person per month at 1,500 tumans, and the second tier allows an additional 50 liters at 3,000 tumans. Any fuel purchased beyond these 110-liter combined quotas falls under the significantly higher third-tier price.

Fuel prices are a historically sensitive issue in Iran. In November 2019, a fuel price increase triggered widespread protests that resulted in an estimated 1,500 deaths. Similar protests earlier this year, which saw a record number of casualties, were also linked to rising fuel and currency prices.

The current price hike disproportionately affects the poorest citizens. While vehicle owners can access subsidized fuel, many impoverished Iranians rely on motorcycles for income, often lacking the necessary fuel cards to qualify for the lower rates. These motorcycles are frequently their sole means of earning a living through delivery and transport services.

This decision also highlights the growing economic strain on Iran due to U.S. sanctions. Iranian authorities typically avoid fuel price increases until absolutely necessary due to the potential for unrest. However, increasing fuel shortages suggest that the government may have felt compelled to raise prices to manage the deficit.

Given the historical context and the potential impact on the population, new protests are anticipated. The key question is the scale of these potential demonstrations: whether they will remain localized or escalate into a nationwide movement. The article suggests that if protests become widespread, external intervention could become a temptation, given the de facto state of conflict between the U.S. and Israel and Iran, implying a likely harsh response from Iranian authorities.