Left Bloc Organized as Right Faces Election Threshold Risks
As the official election campaign begins in Israel, the left-wing bloc appears to have a significant advantage due to better party consolidation, with all its constituent parties comfortably above the electoral threshold. In contrast, two right-wing parties, Religious Zionism and Ofer Winter's "Am Yisrael Chai" party, are currently hovering around the threshold, posing a risk of wasted votes.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a complex challenge. While leading the Likud party, he also needs to ensure his potential right-wing coalition partners do not fail to cross the electoral threshold. A strong Likud showing at the expense of smaller right-wing parties could be a Pyrrhic victory if those parties collapse, leading to the loss of crucial votes needed to form a 61-seat majority government.
Netanyahu's apparent strategy involves an aggressive campaign against Ofer Winter's party. The Likud plans to emphasize that Winter's party may not pass the threshold, thus risking wasted votes, and question Winter's commitment to the right-wing bloc, suggesting he might align with Avigdor Lieberman. The goal is to weaken Winter, absorb his potential voters back into established parties, and prevent Netanyahu from becoming dependent on an unpredictable new player.
Winter, however, believes he can attract voters from outside the traditional right-wing base. If successful, his candidacy could expand the bloc. But if his support primarily comes from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit voters, he becomes a threat to Netanyahu rather than an asset. Netanyahu prefers established partners like Smotrich and Ben-Gvir over the independent Winter, highlighting the left's current organizational advantage over the right's ongoing struggle for every vote.
