Analyst Questions Impact of UAE Warning on October 7th Failures

Ofer Shelah, a political commentator, has responded to reports of a warning from the UAE president to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prior to the October 7th Hamas attacks. Shelah argued that while such a warning would reinforce Netanyahu's responsibility for strengthening Hamas and the military's lack of preparedness, the "blindness" that led to the intelligence failure was systemic and broader than any single alert.

"For those who hold my view, Netanyahu bears absolute responsibility both for the policy that preceded the war and led to Hamas's strengthening, and for the army's readiness, as he has been prime minister for so long," Shelah stated. He expressed doubt that a specific warning would have altered Israel's policy, suggesting that the "blindness" leading up to October 7th was a comprehensive, partly willful, systemic issue. He emphasized the need to address this systemic blindness to prevent future failures, rather than searching for a single missed warning.

Shelah also rejected the notion that Israel is in a more sober place regarding its strategic discourse, claiming the quality of discussion is worse than before. He described Israel's current approach as a "policy of open warfare," questioning its sustainability and the associated international, military, economic, and social consequences. He believes Israel has not rectified its fundamental issues.

Furthermore, Shelah asserted that Israel is not managing its regional relationships effectively, suggesting its actions, particularly in Syria, are pushing the country towards conflict. He criticized a prevailing mindset that assumes everyone is against Israel, leading to inaction. He warned this is a dangerous position, as Israel has many potential avenues for action, both military and non-military, which are being ignored.

Regarding tensions between the US and Iran, Shelah noted the ongoing, seemingly aimless exchanges of fire. He suggested such actions typically signal either an impending agreement or escalation, but neither appears to be the immediate goal. He deemed escalation unlikely given the upcoming US elections in November, while also observing that neither the US nor Iran seems to be pursuing a deal.