Analyst Questions Impact of UAE Warning on Netanyahu's Pre-War Failures

Ofer Shelah, a political commentator, has responded to reports of a warning from the UAE president to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prior to the October 7th Hamas attacks. Shelah stated that while such a warning would reinforce Netanyahu's responsibility for strengthening Hamas and the military's lack of readiness, the "blindness" that led to the intelligence failure was systemic and broader than any single alert.

Shelah asserted that Netanyahu bears "absolute responsibility" for both the policy that preceded the war and bolstered Hamas, and for the military's state of preparedness, given his long tenure as Prime Minister. He expressed doubt that a specific warning would have altered Israel's policy, emphasizing that the "systemic blindness" leading up to October 7th was a result of a comprehensive, partly willful, failure. He argued that Israel has not learned from this, continuing a "policy of open warfare" without addressing the underlying issues, which he believes has worsened over the years.

According to Shelah, the Israeli public fears confronting these systemic issues due to their connection to deeply held beliefs about security. This fear, he explained, hinders productive discourse and causes individuals and organizations to become insular. He also warned that Israel's actions, particularly in Syria, are shaping regional dynamics and potentially creating more adversaries, while the country operates under a dangerous assumption that "everyone is against us."

Regarding the tensions between the US and Iran, Shelah analyzed the ongoing exchanges, noting their unclear purpose. He suggested that such events typically signal either an impending agreement or an escalation, but neither appears to be in the interest of the US, especially with the November elections approaching. He also observed that neither the US nor Iran seems to be actively pursuing a deal.