Israeli Security Chiefs Downplayed Hamas Threat Before Oct. 7
Israeli security officials repeatedly assured political leaders that Hamas posed no significant threat from Gaza during the autumn holidays of 2023, according to protocols from joint meetings with military leadership. These documents, presented to the State Comptroller during an investigation later blocked by the Supreme Court, were partially revealed by Israel's Channel 14.
On August 31, 2023, then-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked security chiefs for recommendations regarding Hamas. They proposed a limited raid through tunnels, stating Hamas lacked the capability for a large-scale ground attack, suggesting only a small cell or platoon could operate at a few points. Netanyahu later told the comptroller that Hamas's "Jericho Wall" battle plan, known since 2021, was not shared with political leadership.
Further meetings in September reinforced a sense of calm. On September 12, an Aman representative described the holiday period as "explosive" but felt the situation in Gaza was "manageable." IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi confirmed IDF readiness, while then-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant characterized Gaza as "stable" and advised restraint, believing Hamas sought long-term de-escalation.
Despite some border disturbances, intelligence reports continued to present an optimistic outlook. A September 21 Shin Bet report, headed by Ronen Bar, noted Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar's "new initiative" behind border friction but concluded his main goal was to restart a settlement process, not a large-scale conflict. Halevi also believed improving Gaza's economy served Israel's security interests.
On September 27, a meeting led by Netanyahu concluded that Hamas was not interested in escalation. Bar stated Hamas was "partially satisfied" and "very unwilling to get into a fighting round." Gallant recommended pursuing a long-term settlement with Hamas, believing the group also desired it.
Just four days before the October 7 attack, on October 3, Netanyahu received another Shin Bet report suggesting that renewed agreements based on "calm for concessions" could maintain stability, even long-term. Channel 14's reporting indicates that no intelligence agency warned the political leadership of an invasion of such magnitude, with security officials believing any Hamas action would be a limited provocation for leverage on blockade and financial isolation.
