The United States has finally returned to a policy grounded in reality rather than wishful thinking, according to Danny Citrinowicz, a former head of the Iran desk in the IDF Military Intelligence research division and its representative in the U.S., who now serves as a senior researcher in the Institute for National Security Studies program on Iran and the Shiite axis.
Citrinowicz argues that Washington should have long understood that Iran’s missile program is not negotiable because it sits at the core of the regime’s security doctrine in Tehran. He says years of pressure and even military force did not change the basic fact that Iran was never going to dismantle the missile arsenal it sees as its main shield against militarily superior rivals. He makes the same point about the Strait of Hormuz, saying geography cannot be defeated, and that as long as Iran controls access along the northern coast of the Persian Gulf, it can continue threatening shipping there in a crisis, even if military force can reduce the risk.
In his view, the deeper lesson is that only one Iranian capability can fundamentally shift the Middle East balance and directly challenge the global nonproliferation regime, nuclear weapons in Iranian hands. He says it may have taken too long to reach that conclusion, but that recognizing strategic reality late is still better than never recognizing it.
Citrinowicz says the U.S. administration has now pulled back from its maximalist goals and adopted a more measured approach before events spiraled further out of control. He argues that future talks on Iran’s nuclear program must be led by technical experts, not political slogans, and must aim for a comprehensive framework that blocks every real path to a bomb. Stable nonproliferation deals, he says, depend on strict verification, intrusive inspections, and a realistic assessment of technical capabilities, not assumptions about political intentions. “If diplomacy wants to succeed where confrontation failed, it must focus relentlessly on keeping nuclear weapons away from Iran, while also acknowledging the limits of what can be achieved in other areas,” he wrote.
