Israel Faces Choice Between Palestinian Accord and Forced Solution Amidst Internal Strife
The Palestinian Authority in Ramallah may prefer a settlement with Israel over a forced solution, as Washington has designated Hamas as the entity responsible for Gaza's future. This creates a shared interest between Israel and the PA, with the outcome of Israeli elections being a critical factor. The rise of Jewish terrorism, described as a more severe internal threat than Palestinian terrorism, necessitates a serious approach to resolving the Palestinian issue post-election. While a wise government might have sought to manage the problem to maintain strategic depth, the current situation is different.
The article criticizes Israeli politics for being insular and detached from global realities, ignoring international rulings like those from the International Court of Justice. It highlights the dangerous rhetoric from far-right politicians who claim they alone can defeat Hamas and assert Israeli sovereignty over Arab citizens, noting the rise of figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. This insularity extends to disputes with key European allies like Britain and Germany, which are crucial for the multinational force intended for Gaza. Continued conflict with these nations could lead to an externally imposed solution on Israel regarding the West Bank, mirroring potential outcomes for Gaza.
Discussions with PA officials reveal their keen interest in Israeli election results, which will influence their own decisions on holding elections. While previously favoring a forced solution, Ramallah now prefers an agreement with Israel, primarily to avoid international pressure for elections that could bring Hamas to power in the West Bank. Both sides share an interest in preventing this, with the PA hoping a new Israeli government will negotiate a permanent settlement based on revised parameters that include Jordanian and Israeli participation in shaping the Palestinian future.
The PA believes that renewed ties with Israel could enable them to rally Palestinian military forces from Gaza to achieve an internal defeat of Hamas. The article emphasizes the strategic importance of normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia, which was disrupted on October 7th. Securing energy pipelines from the Arabian Peninsula to Europe is presented as a major opportunity for Israel's prosperity, with the risk of this advantage shifting to Turkey if missed. The US has informed the PA that Hamas is seen as the future entity for Gaza, further solidifying a shared interest with Israel in managing the territory.
Europe is demanding reforms from the PA, including educational changes and peace education, but the PA is hesitant to hold general elections due to fears of Hamas. If a new Israeli government engages with a new Ramallah government, Israel could dictate the terms of reform, such as curriculum changes and ending payments to families of terrorists. The article concludes by suggesting that Saudi Arabia could view progress towards a Palestinian state as fulfilling its demands, potentially leading to Israel becoming a major energy hub connecting the Arabian Peninsula to Europe.
