Ultra-Orthodox Parties Shake Up Knesset Lists Amid Conscription Law Uncertainty

Following the Israeli Supreme Court's decision to annul a law exempting ultra-Orthodox men from military service, Israel's ultra-Orthodox parties are undergoing significant internal shifts in their Knesset lists. In the Degel HaTorah faction, veteran lawmakers Moshe Gafni and Uri Maklev have been sidelined to refresh the party's roster, with Yaakov Asher reportedly set to lead the list. The Shas party is also experiencing internal turmoil, as leader Aryeh Deri attempts to remove experienced MKs Yoav Ben-Tzur and Moshe Abutbul from prominent positions. However, the party's Council of Sages has so far not approved these changes.

These personnel changes are occurring just days before the deadline for party list registration with the Central Elections Committee. Deri's efforts to reshape the Shas list are partly aimed at improving the party's image in light of the contentious conscription issue. The potential inclusion of reserve Lieutenant Colonel Rabbi Dror David Amos, who heads Haifa's religious affairs council, is seen as an attempt to present Shas as a party that includes individuals with military experience, not just rabbis and politicians.

The conscription issue poses a significant electoral challenge for ultra-Orthodox parties. Research from the Israel Democracy Institute indicates that while party loyalty remains high in the Haredi community, the conscription crisis could weaken it. Shas faces a unique challenge as its electorate is more diverse than Degel HaTorah's, with a notable percentage identifying as traditional or religious Zionist, not solely Haredi.

Degel HaTorah's leadership has made a more decisive move, removing Gafni and Maklev from the list. While officially attributed to a need for "refreshing the ranks," sources suggest a political calculation to adopt a firmer stance on conscription. Gafni learned of his removal late at night via a letter from Rabbi Dov Landau, underscoring the spiritual leadership's ultimate authority in party decisions.

These internal shifts reflect the growing political influence of the ultra-Orthodox population, whose parties have seen an increase in their vote share over the years. The changes also highlight the broader question of whether traditional ultra-Orthodox parties can maintain voter discipline amidst the conscription crisis and internal societal debates.