US intelligence agencies have recently assessed that Iran now has the practical ability to close off access to the Strait of Hormuz whenever it chooses. According to three sources familiar with the findings, that means Tehran has gained a new and powerful way to threaten the global economy as a result of the war.
The assessment follows Iran’s demonstrated ability during the current conflict to obstruct passage through the strait, and US analysts believe it could do so again in the future. One source familiar with the US intelligence review told CNN: “We have effectively given Iran de facto control over the strait, a weapon stronger than any nuclear bomb.” The source said the war has fundamentally changed Tehran’s view of how it may use such tools going forward.
A second source said Iran learned during the fighting that targeted attacks on Gulf states’ energy infrastructure can be an effective asymmetric capability. According to that source, Tehran used that tactic successfully during the conflict, and it is now another lever Iran can exploit in the future.
The sources also said the United States had to conduct intensive negotiations with Iran to secure the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring that Tehran still retains significant pressure points even after the emerging agreement.
