U.S. intelligence agencies have recently produced a stark strategic assessment saying Iran has gained a proven ability to independently and fully block the Strait of Hormuz at any time, following the agreement signed by President Donald Trump. The assessment argues that this marks a major shift in the balance of power in the Middle East and gives Tehran an unprecedented lever over the global energy artery, with the capacity to inflict severe damage on the international economy.
Officials in Washington familiar with the reports described the development as a serious strategic defeat for Western deterrence. One source said, "We have now effectively handed Iran control of the strait, a weapon stronger than any nuclear bomb." The report says Iran’s new dominance is not limited to Hormuz, but expands into a broader economic threat tied to its proxy forces. According to sensitive intelligence, Tehran has also prepared a backup plan it calls an "economic nuclear option" if talks with the United States stall.
That plan reportedly relies on activating the Houthi rebels in Yemen to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which, together with a shutdown of Hormuz, would bring global maritime trade to a standstill. The intelligence view also says the latest war resulted from a major miscalculation by the Trump administration, which underestimated Iran’s readiness to escalate and relied on a Chinese influence that does not exist. A senior military official called the situation a historic failure, saying loss of control over the strait would be "the biggest failure of this era" and warning that there is now no way to reverse it without concentrating massive force.
The assessment says Iran preserved most of its military arsenal, including missiles, drones and hundreds of fast attack boats that still threaten shipping lanes, and has quickly resumed drone production. It says Tehran has shown it can strike Gulf energy infrastructure without exhausting its military strength. Trump, however, tried to play down the significance, saying at a leaders’ summit that the strait is already partly open and will be fully open on Friday when the framework agreement is signed. He said, "On Friday, it will be fully open," and added, "I don’t think we’ll need much help, because we have an agreement that it’s going to be open, and it is toll-free. We had a little dispute about that, it is toll-free." U.S. officials are now seeking to tie relief from the naval blockade and economic benefits to Iran’s continued freedom of navigation commitment, but shipping experts say fears over Iranian capability will likely keep traffic through the strait very low for months.
