Israel's Military Prepares for 'Turning of the Guns' Scenario

The term "turning of the guns," referring to Palestinian security forces potentially aiming their legally held weapons at Israeli civilians or soldiers, has gained prominence in Israeli discourse. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently questioned the IDF Chief of Staff about this scenario during a meeting focused on rising settler violence and its impact on troop deployment. Netanyahu has previously voiced concerns about this possibility, as have other government ministers.

The IDF acknowledges the "turning of the guns" scenario as a known and practiced contingency, though they state there is no current intelligence indicating such a plan by the Palestinian Authority. Despite this, the military is preparing for the extreme possibility, with the Judea and Samaria Division having conducted drills for such an event. The concern has been heightened since the October 7th Hamas attacks, leading to reinforced defenses and increased troop presence in the region.

Defense officials have noted a significant decrease in Palestinian terrorism but an increase in nationalist (settler) crime. The commander of the Central Command warned that settler violence is a "match that can ignite everything in an instant" and diverts IDF attention from countering Palestinian terrorism. Some ministers, particularly from the Religious Zionism party, advocate for dismantling the Palestinian Authority, viewing the "turning of the guns" as a potential justification.

Palestinian officials, however, dismiss these concerns, characterizing the weapons held by their security forces as light police equipment, primarily Kalashnikovs, acquired legally for internal security under international auspices. They suggest that Israel's focus on this issue is a political maneuver to create a pretext for military confrontation, weaken the Palestinian Authority, and serve internal Israeli political needs, particularly ahead of elections and holidays.

Despite the preparations for extreme scenarios, the IDF aims to maintain calm in Judea and Samaria and prevent escalation. However, some Israeli ministers express that complete reassurance is impossible given the volatile situation and the proximity of some settlements to larger Palestinian communities. They point to enhanced security measures, including increased numbers and quality of civilian emergency response teams, upgraded fences, and communication systems, as necessary precautions.