Israel Fears US-Iran Deal Could Leave Nuclear Program Intact
Israel is concerned that escalating economic pressure on Iran might lead Tehran to compromise with the United States, potentially leaving its nuclear program intact. Israeli defense officials are closely monitoring the situation, noting signs of internal deterioration within Iran, which they believe could be a catalyst for significant political change, drawing parallels to historical instances where economic crises, rather than military defeat, triggered major shifts. Defense Minister Israel Katz has issued stern warnings to Tehran, stating that any Iranian attack on Israel would result in a massive response, potentially targeting Iran's critical infrastructure.
Beyond direct escalation, Israeli defense circles are particularly worried about a scenario where Iran reaches an agreement with the U.S. that eases tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and regional security but fails to dismantle its nuclear capabilities. Such a deal, while potentially beneficial for both the U.S. and Israel by reducing immediate maritime and regional security concerns, would complicate Israel's ability to garner international support for future actions against Iran's nuclear ambitions. Military sources cited by Avi Ashkenazi of Maariv suggest that the IDF would act to neutralize an existential threat to Israel even without international legitimacy, though this could strain relations with allies.
Israeli security agencies are also observing rising tensions around Iran, with Tehran reportedly using strong rhetoric and regional activities to bolster its standing amid internal crises. Specific attention is being paid to Lebanon, where Israeli military actions near the Ali Taher ridge and potential casualties among Iran-linked personnel could provoke a direct response against Israel. However, assessments indicate that Iranian officers were not present during the encirclement of tunnels by Israeli forces, which likely contained between ten and fifteen militants.
Maariv military correspondent Avi Ashkenazi emphasizes the need for Israel to clearly define its "red lines" regarding Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile development, particularly concerning the resumption of centrifuge operations and uranium enrichment. These boundaries, he argues, should be established in advance and coordinated with American partners. Amid ongoing economic pressure, Israel aims to ensure its security concerns remain a central factor in any future U.S.-Iran negotiations. Earlier reports indicated Iran was preparing for renewed missile barrages against Israel and was nearing a "point of no return" before a new war.
