Syria Strikes Risk Escalating Israel-Turkey Tensions

Informal security arrangements governing Israeli and Turkish military activities in Syria have collapsed following an Israeli strike on an airbase, raising concerns that the country could become a focal point for escalating regional rivalry. Charles Lister, a Syria analyst, stated on i24NEWS that recent Israeli airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase challenged understandings previously reached through talks in Baku, Azerbaijan. These understandings had established separate operational zones and a direct line to prevent accidental confrontation.

Israel claimed Turkey was preparing to deploy air defense systems at Abu al-Duhur, approximately 40 miles from the Turkish border, a claim Ankara denied. The strike was followed by a sharp exchange of statements between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with each leader portraying the other's actions as a threat to regional security. Lister noted that the understandings themselves had "effectively collapsed a few weeks ago," though he added that the US and other parties seem keen to restore them.

Lister explained that prior negotiations arose after the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad government, as both Israel and Turkey sought to protect their competing interests amid the resulting uncertainty. Turkey, a long-time supporter of Syrian opposition groups, began expanding its influence, while Israel aimed to maintain its freedom of military movement. The US had understood a dividing line to run through central Syria, near the T4 airbase, making the strike north of this area surprising to American officials and suggesting Israel might be shifting the deconfliction line closer to Turkey.

Without renewed agreement, Lister warned, the potential for escalation will increase, even though neither Israel nor Turkey appears eager for direct conflict. He stressed the need for "diplomatic communication to avoid any kind of escalation." Lister dismissed claims that Turkish behavior is driven by Ottoman-era ambitions, characterizing Ankara instead as a regional power pursuing its own interests and leveraging its geography and long-standing ties with Syrian armed groups.

While Turkey has struggled economically to compete with wealthier Gulf states in Syria's reconstruction, it has found opportunities in the defense sector through its connections with Syrian National Army factions. Lister argued this does not indicate a desire for control or using Syria as a platform against Israel. Instead, Ankara seeks influence and aims to help Damascus build capabilities against threats like ISIS and external military pressure. Meanwhile, Syria's transitional authorities, weakened by civil war and authoritarian rule, lack resources for basic obligations and are open to international assistance.

Damascus has attempted to balance its competing regional relationships while expressing interest in a security agreement with Israel. However, Lister accused the Netanyahu government of resisting an agreement despite months of US-mediated negotiations. He cautioned that continued Israeli military operations could push Damascus closer to Ankara, despite Syrian leaders' reluctance to appear dependent on Turkey. Lister concluded that Israel's policy and behavior toward Syria risk creating the very security threat Israel claims to be preventing.

The interview also touched on the integration of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into state institutions, a significant development Lister described as a major step after the SDF realized they could no longer maintain autonomy. This integration has brought benefits to Syrian Kurds, including citizenship and official recognition of the Kurdish language. However, the situation remains more volatile in the Druze-majority Sweida province, where Lister blamed spiritual leader Hikmat al-Hajri's refusal to negotiate with Damascus for hindering a settlement and contributing to unrest.

Ultimately, Lister views Syria as an opportunity for regional cooperation rather than hostile competition, and reinstating the mechanism separating Israeli and Turkish operations would be a crucial first step, stating, "There is no reason why those understandings cannot be re-established."