Israel-Turkey Tensions Escalate Amid Political Maneuvering and Syrian Conflict

Relations between Israel and Turkey have deteriorated significantly, evolving from sharp political disputes to a rivalry that could potentially lead to direct military confrontation. This escalation, despite contradicting the national interests of both countries, is driven by the political agendas of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

Both leaders are reportedly exploiting the crisis for domestic political gain. Netanyahu aims to leverage the tensions ahead of elections, portraying Turkey as part of a regional threat and bolstering his image as a strong security leader. Erdoğan, meanwhile, uses the animosity towards Israel to consolidate his base among conservative and Islamist supporters and position himself as a leader in the Muslim world. This dynamic has negatively impacted trade and tourism between the nations and intensified friction in Syria, a key arena where Israel and Turkey hold conflicting visions for its future.

The recent Israeli airstrike on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Syria in August, which Israel claimed was a response to Turkey's alleged plans to deploy forces and drones there, exemplifies the intertwined factors of ideological differences, political opportunism, and direct military competition over Syria's future. Turkey denied military presence at the base, while the US described the strike as a reaction to Israeli concerns about potential future Turkish expansion.

The deterioration of Israeli-Turkish relations has roots dating back to 2008, with a significant crisis occurring during Operation "Cast Lead" in Gaza in early 2009 and escalating dramatically with the 2010 Mavi Marmara incident. Despite periods of reconciliation, including a 2016 reconciliation agreement, relations have been strained, particularly since the outbreak of the "Swords of Iron" war in late 2023, with Turkey adopting a strongly hostile stance. Trade between the two countries has been largely halted since May 2024, with Turkey conditioning its resumption on a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

Academics suggest Erdoğan's rhetoric incorporates historical antisemitic conspiracy theories and a "Promised Land vision" portraying Israel as an existential threat, while also aligning with a broader anti-Palestinian sentiment prevalent in Turkish society. Similarly, Netanyahu's Likud party has used campaign materials featuring Erdoğan alongside leaders of Iran and Hezbollah, framing the Turkish leader as an enemy to rally domestic support. Experts believe that a change in government in Israel, or a significant political shift in Turkey, could potentially open avenues for de-escalating the conflict, as both nations have a long-term national interest in maintaining relative stability and avoiding direct confrontation.