Iran Took Advantage of Trump’s Urgency in Talks, Israeli Analyst Says

Prof. Eitan Gilboa, an expert on Israel-U.S. relations who teaches at Reichman University and Bar-Ilan University and is a senior researcher at the BESA Center for Strategic Studies, argued that Donald Trump failed in negotiations with Iran because Tehran exploited his weaknesses and his rush for a quick deal. Gilboa said the details of the emerging agreement are still not fully known, aside from information reported in Iranian media.

According to Gilboa, the deal is a phased memorandum of understanding. The first stage deals with the Strait of Hormuz and effectively restores the previous situation, allowing traffic through the strait and releasing an estimated $12 billion to $24 billion in frozen Iranian funds held around the world, mostly in Gulf states. The second stage would be a 60-day discussion on the nuclear issue, but the exact terms remain unclear. He noted that the memorandum does not address Iran’s uranium enriched to 60 percent.

Gilboa quoted Trump as shifting from demanding removal of the uranium to accepting Iranian dilution. He said history shows Iran has not been willing to give up nuclear weapons, and that 60 percent enrichment is for weapons, not civilian use. He also described Trump as having “paid in cash and received deferred checks from the Revolutionary Guards,” calling them effectively worthless. In his view, Trump changed course because of domestic and regional pressure and because the war did not deliver the results he expected.

Gilboa said 60 days will not be enough to settle the technical issues of nuclear oversight. He added that on Lebanon, Iran is insisting on maintaining its link with Hezbollah, and Trump accepted that despite the Israeli and American interest in weakening Hezbollah and backing the elected government there. He said Trump’s anger at Benjamin Netanyahu stemmed from concern that Israeli fire in the Dahieh district of Beirut could endanger the agreement. Gilboa concluded that Iran needs a deal no less than the United States does, but that the odds of the memorandum serving Israel and the U.S. are very low.