Trump’s Iran Deal Leaves Major Nuclear and Regional Questions Unanswered

President Donald Trump announced overnight that the United States and Iran had reached an agreement to end the war, but the official text has not been released. The deal is being described as a memorandum of understanding, not a final accord, with 60 days of talks still ahead. Even so, reports in foreign media, including Iran’s Mehr news agency, suggest the sides already agreed on broad principles that could shape a future deal.

The biggest open issues include the fate of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, its lower-grade stockpile, underground nuclear sites, verification rules, sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, and whether regional proxies and ballistic missiles are excluded from the talks. Trump said the deal would bring “peace and security to the entire region,” but analysts warned that unresolved questions could make a final agreement difficult within the 60-day window.

One especially sensitive issue is Lebanon, which Iran insists must be included in any ceasefire arrangement. INSS senior researcher Danny Citrinowicz called that the “most complex” issue and said it has “huge” potential to derail negotiations. He also said it is unclear whether Israel must withdraw from Lebanon and what would count as defensive action.

Reuters cited an Iranian source saying the agreement includes diluting Iran’s 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium inside Iran, but the mechanism, oversight, and timeline remain unclear. Iran also has tons of uranium enriched to up to 20 percent, and it is not clear what will happen to that material or to facilities such as Natanz, Fordow, and the Mountain of the Hidden. Trump has said Iran may enrich uranium at low levels after the agreed period, but not to weapons-grade levels.

Citrinowicz said the likely outcome is that negotiations will drag beyond 60 days rather than collapse, though he did not rule out a final deal. He also noted the apparent similarity to the 2015 nuclear deal, which Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu both fiercely opposed, including limits on enrichment, nuclear-site constraints, and IAEA monitoring. Reports also indicate Iran could receive major economic concessions, including the possible release of about $24 billion in frozen assets, but the exact scale and timing of those benefits remain unclear.