Unresolved issues cloud Trump’s announced Iran deal

President Donald Trump announced overnight that the United States had reached an agreement with Iran to end the war, but the official text has not been published. Israeli and foreign reports, including a claimed leak by Iran’s Maher news agency, suggest the document is only a memorandum of understanding ahead of a fuller deal expected after 60 days of talks.

The biggest unanswered question is Lebanon, where Iran reportedly wanted the ceasefire to include the country, despite Israel’s strong opposition. Danny Citrinowicz of the Institute for National Security Studies called Lebanon the most complex issue and said it could derail any broader accord, especially given questions such as whether Israel must withdraw and what counts as defensive action.

Other unresolved matters include Iran’s 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, its stockpile of low-enriched uranium, underground nuclear sites such as Natanz, Fordow and the Mountain, and how far any enrichment freeze would go. Reuters cited an Iranian source saying the deal includes dilution of enriched uranium inside Iran, but the mechanism, oversight and timetable remain unclear. The New York Times reported that Washington initially sought a 20-year freeze, while Iran wanted 10 years and a possible 15-year compromise was discussed.

The scope of sanctions relief is also unclear, even though Iranian and Arab media have reported economic incentives. Citrinowicz said the public still does not know what Iran must do to receive benefits or how they would be phased in over the 60 days. He also said the status of the Strait of Hormuz is vague, and that it is unclear whether Iran will be allowed to continue charging fees or extracting other gains.

Another major gap is verification. By comparison with the 2015 nuclear deal, the new arrangement appears to preserve similar elements, including uranium limits, restrictions on nuclear sites and international monitoring. But Trump’s earlier demands for destroying Iran’s ballistic missile program and cutting ties to proxy forces appear to have been removed from the table, according to the Iranian report, despite being key Israeli demands. Citrinowicz said that if those issues stayed in the deal, “there would be no agreement.”