Iranian Leadership Warns Economic Strain Threatens Regime Stability Amid US Pressure

Senior Iranian officials have issued unusually candid warnings about the country's worsening economic situation and the challenges of sustaining pressure from the United States. Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf acknowledged that no matter how strong Iran's military might be, widespread hunger and economic stagnation could undermine the regime's stability. He emphasized the interdependence of security and economic growth, stating that military strength alone cannot be maintained without economic continuity.

President Ebrahim Raisi (referred to as Masoud Pezhkian in the article) called for ending the ongoing conflict while Iran remains "in a position of power," asserting that the world recognizes Iran's victory. These statements come amid Tehran's simultaneous warnings that escalating US sanctions and economic pressure could provoke a military escalation.

A security source told N12 that if Iran's efforts to counteract economic sanctions fail, the regime might escalate to active military engagement. Reports from the Financial Times indicated that Iran has prepared for potential attacks on US military targets in southeastern Europe, including the US airbase in Zamir, Bulgaria, used for aerial refueling. A regime insider warned that if the US pushes too far, Iran could retaliate beyond the region, potentially striking European targets.

Meanwhile, Tehran is reportedly using ceasefire periods to rebuild its ballistic missile production capabilities and is undeterred by the prospect of renewed conflict. Iranian strategy appears to be a "siege for siege" approach, particularly in strategic chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb. The security source suggested that failure to break the economic siege might lead Iran to escalate militarily, moving from economic disruption tactics to open hostilities.

These developments highlight the tension within Iran's leadership between preserving military achievements and managing the severe economic costs of ongoing confrontation with the US.