Iranian Leadership Warns Economic Strain Threatens Regime Stability Amid US Pressure

Senior Iranian officials have issued unusually candid warnings about the country's deteriorating economic situation and the challenges of sustaining resistance against US sanctions. Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf acknowledged that regardless of military strength, the regime cannot endure if the population remains hungry and economic growth stalls. He emphasized the interdependence of security and economic stability, stating that military achievements are unsustainable without economic support.

President Masoud Pezeshkian called for an end to the ongoing conflict from a position of strength, asserting that Iran should conclude the war now while it still holds power and international recognition of its victories. These statements come amid Tehran's simultaneous signals that escalating sanctions and economic pressure could provoke a military escalation.

A security source told N12 that if Iranian efforts to undermine the economic siege fail, the regime might escalate to open military confrontation. Reports from the Financial Times indicate Iran has prepared for potential strikes against US military targets in southeastern Europe, including the US airbase in Zamir, Bulgaria, used for refueling operations. A regime insider warned that if the US pushes too far, Iran could extend its military response beyond the region, potentially targeting Europe.

Meanwhile, Tehran is reportedly using ceasefire periods to rebuild its ballistic missile production capabilities, undeterred by the prospect of renewed conflict. The Iranian strategy appears to be a tit-for-tat approach to US sanctions, particularly in strategic chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb. The security source concluded that if Iran judges economic pressure ineffective, it may escalate to direct military action.