Israeli Security Expert Warns Iran Poses Same Trap as Nazi Germany's Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact
This week marks 87 years since the signing of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, a non-aggression agreement between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union in 1939 that was broken less than two years later when Hitler invaded the USSR. Shimon Rafael, deputy head of the Institute for Security Policy of the Security Movement and former policy advisor to Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, draws lessons from this historical pact for Israel's current security challenges, particularly regarding Iran and Hamas.
In an interview with C14, Rafael emphasized that such agreements with totalitarian regimes or terrorist organizations are tactical tools to gain time rather than genuine peace efforts. He warned against the dangerous assumption that all international actors share fundamental values like respect for life and treaty commitments. Rafael highlighted how the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact temporarily secured Hitler's eastern front, enabling his invasion of Poland, but was ultimately a cynical and temporary alliance that collapsed with devastating consequences.
Rafael draws parallels to Iran, noting that despite diplomatic efforts like the 2015 nuclear deal, Iran continued advancing its nuclear program, funding terror proxies, and openly calling for Israel's destruction. He stressed that for radical regimes, agreements serve to reduce pressure and build strength for future conflict. The same applies even more so to terrorist groups like Hamas, which used ceasefires to rearm and prepare for attacks, as seen in the October 7 massacre.
Rejecting reliance on diplomatic agreements with hostile actors, Rafael advocates for a "iron wall" approach rooted in military strength, deterrence, and national sovereignty. He argues that Israel must maintain a robust and independent security policy, recognizing that only force and self-reliance guarantee its survival and peace. Rafael concludes that Israel should only make agreements with peaceful states and rely on its own power against tyrants and terrorists.
