Iran Expert Says Tehran Sees Conflict as a Win, Warns of More Rounds Ahead

Iran expert Roi Khanovich said that, from Tehran’s perspective, the confrontation with the United States and Israel is being presented as a strategic success. In an interview with Bnei Titelbaum on KAN Morasha, he said, “From the Iranian perspective they won,” and argued that it was the Americans who showed pressure in recent weeks, while the Iranians stayed patient and used that to their advantage.

Khanovich acknowledged that Iran suffered serious damage, including to its leadership, infrastructure and capabilities, but said the Islamic Republic has repeatedly shown it can recover and rebuild, both internally and through its regional proxies. He added that hopes for a popular uprising inside Iran have not materialized so far, and that the window of opportunity that existed in earlier months has now closed.

Even so, he said Iran’s domestic situation remains severe, with inflation, water shortages, electricity shortages and continuing economic strain. In his view, those pressures could still fuel new protests in the future. On Iran’s Jewish community, he said estimates put the number of Jews in the country at between 20,000 and 25,000, describing them as a minority officially recognized by the regime that tries to avoid confrontation and maintain normal life, despite occasional reports of antisemitic incidents.

Asked what could have been done differently, Khanovich argued that targeted economic measures against senior regime officials and their families would likely have been more effective than regional or maritime pressure. He said hitting the assets and wealth of the ruling elite could have created stronger leverage. He also warned that even if some kind of memorandum of understanding is signed, it is still too early to say the crisis is over. “If Iran continues to pursue nuclear weapons, we will need to deal with that later as well,” he said.