Iran’s Victory Celebrations Are Mostly Theater, Analyst Says

As U.S. and Iranian talks open in Switzerland, an Iranian affairs expert says the celebrations in Tehran over the weekend are mainly domestic propaganda. In an interview on Sunday with Idan Tauber, Rani Amrani, who heads the Persian-language Radio Ran, argued that Iran’s leadership is trying to present itself as having forced a win over Washington, while in reality the regime is under severe economic pressure.

Amrani said the government needs any deal to bring dollars into a struggling economy, but cannot appear to compromise in front of hardline supporters. He said President Masoud Pezeshkian is being used to sign understandings so the Islamic Republic can later deny responsibility. According to him, this lets the regime collect money without angering the Revolutionary Guards or Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s loyalists, who want “revenge for the killing of the leader.”

He also said Iran is keeping the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip. Even if reports suggest the waterway is open, he said Tehran is deliberately maintaining uncertainty and may shift between blocking and reopening it depending on how strongly the United States responds. He warned that if Hormuz were shut, Iran would lose billions of dollars and its economic situation would become very difficult.

Despite the talks, Amrani said a historic permanent agreement is unlikely. He argued that both sides are acting tactically, with the Americans seeking calm ahead of midterm elections and the Iranians needing dollars badly. “The Iranians will not give up their last card, enriched uranium,” he said, adding that the Americans know a final deal will ultimately not be signed.