Iran Plans Two-Stage Escalation Against US to Pressure Trump Amid Sanctions

Iran is shifting from a defensive stance to an offensive strategy against the United States, according to a source close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This new two-stage plan comes as Tehran recognizes that US sanctions and the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz are effective and that President Trump is in no rush to negotiate a deal.

In the first stage, Iran intends to target energy and civilian infrastructure in Gulf countries neighboring Iran. The goal is to inflict economic and social disruption in the region, thereby pressuring these states to urge the US to ease sanctions. If this phase fails, the second stage involves significant attacks on American military bases in the region, aiming not only to send a message but to cause substantial damage and casualties. Any potential strikes on US targets in Europe would likely be carried out by Iranian proxy groups.

The plan currently excludes direct attacks on Israel, though Tehran is aware that escalating conflict with the US and Gulf states could draw Israel into the confrontation. Iranian leadership is also contending with internal economic challenges, including inflation, unemployment, and public unrest. Some regime officials believe that escalating tensions with the US could unify the Iranian population by framing the crisis as a national struggle against an external enemy, potentially diverting attention from domestic hardships.

This strategic shift reflects Iran's calculation that increased pressure on regional neighbors and direct military action against US forces may compel Washington to reconsider its sanctions policy. The situation remains volatile, with the possibility of broader regional conflict if the plan proceeds and provokes retaliatory responses.