Iran Deal Sealed After Regional Escalation, Expert Says Tehran Sees Major Win
A framework agreement between the Trump administration and Iran has been finalized, and the U.S. president quickly announced that ships could again move safely through the Strait of Hormuz. But according to Dr. Raz Zimmt, an Iran specialist and head of the Shiite Axis program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), the deal was shaped by a far more complicated political and operational drama behind the scenes.
Speaking Monday on Radio 103FM, Zimmt said most reactions inside Iran, both among the public and the leadership, have been strongly positive. He said only a small, vocal ultra-radical minority sees negotiations and agreement with the United States as betrayal. Tehran, he added, portrays the outcome as a strategic victory, claiming Iran not only survived pressure from what it sees as the world’s two strongest militaries, but also turned the confrontation into a new regional order and significant economic gains.
Zimmt said the final signing was affected by a sharp escalation after an Israeli strike in Beirut’s Dahiyeh district. According to reports he cited, the deal’s details were still not fully settled at that moment. The strike created a dilemma for Iran, which wanted to carry out its own response formula, meaning an attack on Israel in response to a strike on Dahiyeh. In the tense overnight discussions in Tehran, heavy pressure was placed on Trump, who agreed to soften his position on when the maritime blockade would be lifted. Instead of a gradual removal over the coming month, he moved the deadline up to this Friday, a major American concession that let Iran claim it had preserved its commitment to Lebanon.
On reports that Trump promised an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, Zimmt said such a move would be hard to imagine without direct, gradual negotiations between Israel and Lebanon. He suggested Iran may now tell Hezbollah the escalation threat succeeded in pressuring Washington and is no longer needed, so the group should stop firing even if the IDF remains in southern Lebanon. Still, he warned the situation is highly fragile, because as long as Israeli forces are physically inside Lebanon, the chance of Hezbollah fighters trying to attack them remains high.
Economically, Zimmt said the agreement is expected to bring Iran billions of dollars almost immediately. Beyond the release of frozen funds, the U.S. decision to allow Iranian oil exports, especially oil already loaded on tankers, is a major boost for a country in deep economic distress. But he cautioned that the benefits do not solve Iran’s structural problems of mismanagement, deep corruption, and Revolutionary Guard control over key economic sectors. Without deep reforms, which he said the regime will struggle to deliver, the economic crisis will continue and renewed protests, along with a future threat to regime stability, remain a real possibility.
