Poll Shows Mixed Outlook for Likud's Knesset Seats Following Primaries

A recent poll reveals contrasting expectations for the Likud party's performance in the upcoming elections following its primary results. Among voters who support the coalition parties, 50.9% believe the new Likud list will strengthen the party, with nearly half expecting Likud to secure 30 or more Knesset seats. Specifically, 29.7% anticipate 30 to 34 seats, and 20% expect 35 or more. Overall, 68.6% of coalition voters predict Likud will win at least 25 seats.

However, the broader public sentiment is less optimistic. When considering all respondents, only 22.3% think the new Likud list will improve the party's standing, while 32.6% believe it will harm it, and 38% expect no significant change. Regarding seat projections, 65.6% of all respondents foresee Likud winning fewer than 25 seats, with 31% expecting fewer than 20.

Opposition voters are even more skeptical, with just 7.1% believing the primaries will strengthen Likud. Nearly 83.7% of opposition supporters predict Likud will win fewer than 25 seats, including 38.5% who expect fewer than 20. The poll highlights a sharp divide between coalition and opposition voters' perceptions of Likud's electoral prospects after the primaries.

The poll was published by Maariv Online on August 19, 2026, and reflects voter attitudes shortly after the Likud primaries. The data underscores the challenges Likud faces in consolidating support ahead of the next Knesset elections, with significant uncertainty about the party's future seat count.