Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar! Leads with 24 Seats as Third Bloc Collapses, Shas Stagnates

A new Channel 12 poll published on Monday shows the party Yashar!, led by Gadi Eisenkot, as the largest faction with 24 Knesset seats. The Likud party follows closely in second place with 22 seats. Naftali Bennett’s party, Beyachad, maintains its strength with 15 seats, while the Democrats hold 11, Yisrael Beiteinu 10, and both Otzma Yehudit and United Torah Judaism receive 8 seats each. Shas remains at a low point with 7 seats, and Religious Zionism, Hadash-Ta’al, and Ra’am each secure 5 seats.

In bloc terms, anti-Netanyahu parties collectively hold 70 seats, including 60 from Zionist parties and 10 from Arab parties, compared to only 50 seats for the coalition. All parties in the so-called "third bloc" remain below the electoral threshold, including Balad with 1.8%, the United List led by Gilad Erdan with 1.7%, Beit Tziony of Troper and Handel with 1.5%, and Blue and White led by Benny Gantz with 1.4%.

The poll also examined a scenario where retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter forms a new party. In this case, Winter’s list would receive 2.5% and fail to cross the threshold, but would cause Religious Zionism to fall below the threshold as well, shrinking the coalition to 47 seats and boosting the opposition to 73 seats, including 63 Zionist seats. Under this scenario, Yashar! rises to 26 seats, Likud to 24, and Beyachad to 16.

Another scenario tested the impact of MK Hili Troper leaving Beit Tziony to join Yashar!, which would strengthen Eisenkot’s party to 25 seats and reduce Yisrael Beiteinu to 9, while the overall bloc distribution remains unchanged at 70 opposition seats and 50 coalition seats.

Regarding suitability for prime minister, Eisenkot leads Netanyahu with 38% to 34%, with 22% undecided. Against Bennett, Netanyahu narrowly leads 35% to 34%, with 27% undecided. Against Avigdor Lieberman, Netanyahu leads 35% to 24%, with 36% saying neither is suitable.

Amid Likud primaries and political shifts, 52% of the public say the party list composition will affect their vote, including 66% of opposition and third bloc voters versus 41% of coalition supporters. Additionally, 55% of opposition voters believe the largest party leader should be the sole candidate to form the government, compared to 26% who disagree and 19% unsure.