Professor Asher Cohen Critiques Israel's Electoral Threshold as Political Stability Myth
Professor Asher Cohen from Bar-Ilan University critically examines Israel's electoral threshold in the second episode of the podcast "The Political Workshop," highlighting its failure to achieve intended goals. Originally designed to reduce the number of parties, prevent political extortion, and ensure government stability, the threshold has instead led to significant vote wastage and persistent political instability. Cohen points out that despite raising the threshold to 3.25 percent (equivalent to four Knesset seats), the number of parties has not decreased, and medium-sized parties, rather than small factions, are the main source of coalition instability.
Cohen emphasizes that the electoral threshold causes a massive loss of votes, with hundreds of thousands of votes discarded in recent elections across political blocs. For example, the right-wing lost nearly 400,000 votes in 2019, and the left suffered similar losses in 2022. He also notes that the mechanism has not fostered lasting party mergers; the only stable alliance over decades is the United Torah Judaism list formed in 1988. Other alliances, such as those within the Religious Zionist camp, are temporary and dissolve immediately after elections.
Addressing voter behavior, Cohen explains that some ideological groups remain loyal to small parties despite low chances of crossing the threshold, citing examples like Ayelet Shaked's party and the Identity party. However, the most significant vote loss historically occurred when the Revival party unexpectedly failed to pass the threshold, altering the political balance and enabling the formation of a left-wing blocking coalition during Rabin's government.
Cohen also dispels the misconception that votes for parties failing to cross the threshold are redistributed among other parties in the bloc; he clarifies that such votes are entirely lost. With approximately 7.3 million registered voters and an expected turnout of 70-75 percent, the threshold now requires around 165,000 to 180,000 votes to enter the Knesset, a figure comparable to the entire voter rolls of several medium-sized Israeli cities combined. This high bar poses a significant challenge for small parties aiming to represent diverse voter interests.
