Israel Must Prepare for a Future Without U.S. Military Support

In a strategic analysis, Alex Nahumson argues that while Israel's alliance with the United States remains a crucial asset, it cannot replace Israel's need for independent military and energy capabilities. He emphasizes that Israel must prepare for scenarios where American support is limited or absent, particularly in prolonged conflicts involving multiple fronts such as against Iran.

Nahumson highlights the necessity for Israel to secure energy independence during extended warfare, including electricity, fuel, gas, and alternative sources, alongside strategic stockpiles and infrastructure protection. He stresses that energy is a security asset, not merely an economic resource. Additionally, Israel must dramatically increase its domestic defense production to maintain sufficient stocks of ammunition, missiles, drones, and electronic components, ensuring rapid production scaling in emergencies without reliance on foreign governments.

The article critiques Israel's current military posture, which assumes short, precise wars, as inadequate for sustained multi-theater conflicts. Nahumson calls for a larger, more versatile military force encompassing land, air, sea, intelligence, cyber defense, logistics, and a robust reserve system. He warns that reserves are not unlimited and that Israel must develop human resources and support systems to sustain long-term combat readiness.

Central to his argument is a strategic question Israel must ask: what if the U.S., its most important ally, decides not to provide significant assistance in countering threats? If Israel cannot maintain effective defense independently, its national security foundation is fragile. While continuing intelligence cooperation and American aid is vital, Israel must strive for strategic autonomy to survive if U.S. support ceases. Nahumson concludes that strategic independence is not a luxury but a survival imperative for Israel.