Analyst Warns Trump Could Swiftly Shift From De-escalation to War With Iran

Political analyst Suleiman Maswada has cautioned that former U.S. President Donald Trump’s stance toward Iran could rapidly change, potentially leading to renewed conflict. Despite Trump’s recent announcement that the U.S. would "lower its profile" regarding Iran, Maswada warned that Trump’s unpredictable nature means he could declare war as soon as tomorrow and reverse course again shortly after. This volatility is influenced by the upcoming U.S. midterm elections in November, which weigh heavily on Trump’s political calculations.

Maswada highlighted the significant gap between initial hopes for a comprehensive agreement with Iran and the current stalled situation. He noted that talks have regressed from a memorandum of understanding to a lesser agreement involving Oman and Iran, which has yet to materialize. He also expressed skepticism about Tehran’s rhetoric, suggesting Iranian officials are provoking Trump and claiming victories while their economy suffers severe damage.

Regarding security in Gaza, Maswada stated that Israel maintains control over nearly 70 percent of the territory, a substantial area given the region’s dense population. However, he warned that Hamas is gradually rebuilding its strength, regaining control over Gaza’s economy, markets, taxation, and smuggling routes, and retaining significant weapon stockpiles.

Maswada also commented on internal conflicts within Israel’s Likud party, linking the heightened tensions to the upcoming party primaries. He emphasized the seriousness of accusations against the Defense Minister and called for thorough investigations if any harm to IDF soldiers occurred.

The analyst’s remarks underscore the fragile and dynamic nature of U.S.-Iran relations under Trump, ongoing security challenges in Gaza, and political turbulence within Israel’s ruling party.