Black Swan Party Collapses in Polls Amid Shifting Israeli Political Landscape
Dr. Menachem Lazar, CEO of Lazar Research, discussed the current Israeli political scene in an interview on 103FM on August 6, 2026, highlighting significant changes ahead of the upcoming elections. He noted that the overall polling map remains relatively stable, with the coalition bloc holding about 50 seats, the opposition around 59-60, and Arab parties collectively securing approximately 10 mandates.
Lazar addressed the emergence of a new party led by Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein, targeting disillusioned right-leaning Likud voters who might otherwise abstain. He expressed uncertainty about whether this new party would pass the electoral threshold or significantly shift votes between blocs, suggesting that next week’s polls including this party will provide clearer insights.
A key point Lazar raised was the potential impact of Yoav Segalovich joining the Arab party Ra’am. He explained that Arab voter turnout is crucial and currently low, limiting Ra’am to about 10-11 seats. Segalovich’s involvement could boost turnout and increase Ra’am’s mandates, thereby altering the opposition’s ability to secure a majority. Lazar also noted the political sensitivity of including a non-Arab, Segalovich, in Ra’am’s list, which could affect public and opposition bloc perceptions.
Regarding the Black Swan party, Lazar observed a sharp decline in its polling numbers, dropping from around 30 mandates before the Bennett-Lapid alliance to 13-15 now. Meanwhile, Gadi Eisenkot’s party, Yisrael HaYom, has surged from 12 to 23 mandates, capitalizing on Black Swan’s losses. Lazar questioned whether Black Swan has hit its lowest point and emphasized that upcoming developments, including the new party and Ra’am’s changes, will influence these trends.
The interview provided a detailed snapshot of the fluid Israeli political environment as parties reposition themselves ahead of the 2026 elections, with voter turnout and new alliances playing pivotal roles.
