Leaked Internal Likud Polls Reveal MPs Who Alienate Voters Ahead of August Primaries

Ahead of the August 17th Likud primaries, secret internal polls and AI-driven analyses have identified members of the Knesset who either alienate voters or have negligible electoral influence. These confidential lists circulate within Likud's corridors but are unwelcome by those named, as they could determine political futures. The party, known for its obsession with polling and data, uses these tools to gauge public sentiment, message effectiveness, and individual MKs' contributions to the party's electoral strength.

Among those flagged as alienating voters are Eliyahu Ravivo, Nissim Vaturi, Dudi Amsalem, David Bitan, May Golan, and Eli Dalal. Another list categorizes MKs with minimal impact, including Eti Atiya, Moshiko Pasal, Shalom Danino, and again Eli Dalal, who reportedly lacks influence even in his traditional stronghold of Netanya. Despite these findings, the models do not determine the final candidate list, as the ultimate decision rests with Likud members voting in the primaries.

Dudi Amsalem, though marked as alienating some voters, remains a popular and powerful figure within the party, making his exclusion unlikely. David Bitan, who recently clashed with Netanyahu over the primary system and reserved slots, is not viewed as a rebellious figure but rather as loyal to Netanyahu despite internal disagreements. The party distinguishes between internal disputes and outright opposition, and many members understand this nuance.

The upcoming primaries on August 17 will be decisive in shaping the Likud list for the 2026 Knesset elections, with these internal assessments playing a background role but not dictating outcomes. The use of AI and extensive data analysis reflects the party's modern approach to political strategy, aligning with Netanyahu's emphasis on AI's transformative potential.