Experts Debate Israel’s Strategic Challenges in West Bank and Gaza Amid Rising Tensions
Amid escalating tensions in the West Bank and uncertainty over Gaza’s future, a panel of experts convened on Monday during the Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth National Security Conference, in cooperation with the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), to discuss Israel’s strategic reality. Participants included Naomi Neumann, former head of research and policy production at Shin Bet; Dr. Anat Roth, CEO of the Shiloh Forum and settlement researcher; and Brigadier General (res.) Udi Dekel, head of the INSS research program on conflict resolution and former chief negotiator with the Palestinians under Ehud Olmert’s government.
Neumann described the Palestinian political system as being at an unprecedented low, marked by division between Gaza and the West Bank, political paralysis, lack of leadership, and no political horizon. She characterized Gaza as being in a state of "limbo," with no high-intensity war but also no political solution, despite Israel controlling at least 63% of Gaza’s territory. Although Hamas has weakened militarily and lost some public support, it continues to govern civil affairs and suppress dissent. Regarding the West Bank, Neumann warned of a deceptive calm beneath the surface, fueled by five key Palestinian grievances: personal security threats from settler violence, movement restrictions including checkpoints, severe economic harm from halted worker entry and frozen tax revenues, the impact of Gaza’s conflict, and fears over changes to the status quo at the Temple Mount. She cautioned that weakening the Palestinian Authority endangers Israel’s security coordination and counterterrorism efforts.
Dr. Roth asserted that the Oslo Accords are effectively dead, with Palestinians violating nearly every clause, including foreign relations and continued terrorism. She criticized Israeli institutions for still operating under Oslo’s framework despite Palestinian rejection of the agreement. Roth argued that Palestinians seek a unilateral state without recognizing Israel, aiming for control "from the river to the sea." She said the October 7 massacre shattered the idea of territorial withdrawal and remote security management, and that Israeli public support for further withdrawals or a two-state solution has vanished. Roth called for abandoning Oslo as binding and developing alternatives that ensure Israel’s national security without enabling a Palestinian state.
Brig. Gen. Dekel warned that Israel is heading "blindly to hell" by adopting Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s sovereignty and annexation strategy in the West Bank. He said annexation would incorporate about 3 million Palestinians into Israel, risking civil war, international sanctions, or transformation into a binational state, undermining Israel’s Jewish and democratic character. Dekel criticized efforts to topple the Palestinian Authority, highlighting the heavy economic and security burdens that would fall on Israel. As an alternative, he proposed a path of political, territorial, and demographic separation, granting Palestinians administrative autonomy in parts of the territory while Israel maintains strict security arrangements and operational freedom. He described this as a "way," not a solution, emphasizing the absence of a true resolution but the possibility of future security and political arrangements.
The panel reflected a consensus that the Oslo framework no longer applies, the two-state solution is off the table, and Israel must seek new strategies to manage the Israeli-Palestinian conflict amid ongoing violence and political fragmentation.
