Netanyahu’s next election strategy: remake Likud and build a right-wing satellite party

Analyst Shlomo Filber argues that Israel’s next major political shifts will come on the right, not the left, and could deliver Benjamin Netanyahu a decisive election majority. In his view, the left has already reshuffled itself over more than two years, replacing leaders and parties, while the right is now preparing the real battle over the country’s political direction.

Filber says the two key moves are a refreshed Likud slate and a new right-wing satellite party that would explicitly declare, “We are joining a government led by Netanyahu.” He says Netanyahu understands that the current Likud list, built around 2021 opposition figures, is not suited to the 2027 race, and that the old primaries model no longer works. He is therefore pushing for a more attractive slate through reserved spots or a selection committee.

According to Filber, Likud remains the party with Israel’s highest voter loyalty, and most of its voters return home eventually, but a clearly winning bloc still needs about five additional seats. He says the more interesting question is whether a new center-right party will emerge and who its audience will be.

Filber says a political paradox has developed since summer 2024, after the pager incident and the “With All Its Might” campaign, and after Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot left the political picture. He estimates that 5 to 7 seats of centrist voters have become disillusioned, never voted right before, but now see Netanyahu as the most suitable prime minister based on compatibility data. They lack a party to support because Likud is not currently an option for them, while figures such as Hennel, Erdan, Shmihi, Edelstein, Shaked, and various extra-parliamentary groups have not taken off.

He says these voters want a security-minded, Zionist, values-based center-right party whose leaders would openly back the right-wing bloc. In his current polling, he says the right bloc stands at 63 to 65 seats, but a center-right partner could lift it to a stable 68 to 70-seat coalition, changing the political map and the government’s ability to act in the coming years.