Turkey-Israel Expert Says Erdogan’s Tone Has Hardened, Not His Policy

Dr. Nimrod Goren, an expert on Turkey-Israel relations, says Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has not changed direction toward Israel, only intensified the language and threats he already used before October 7 and especially afterward. In an interview with Channel 7, Goren said Israelis have become used to Ankara’s insults, smears and threats over the years, but the difference now is how Jerusalem chooses to respond.

“Earlier it was easier to brush it off as just talk,” Goren said, “but after October 7 the view is not to let such remarks pass and move on. The messages are not new. Already after the Mavi Marmara flotilla Erdogan threatened to send warships to confront the Israeli navy. So the content is not new, only the framing and the way Israel relates to it.” He also noted that Israeli rhetoric toward Turkey has hardened, citing former prime minister Naftali Bennett’s comparison of Turkey to Iran.

Goren argued that both sides exaggerate the threat perception. He said there is also a current in Turkey that fears Israel may bomb Turkey, a concern even raised in the Turkish parliament. In his view, political agendas, years of regional upheaval, and the shrinking of ties have fueled the atmosphere, especially since there are now almost no diplomats, and far less tourism and business contact, between the two countries. Those channels, he said, used to soften tensions even during difficult periods.

Despite the sharp rhetoric, Goren said security cooperation between Israel and Turkey still exists regarding Syria and efforts to calm that arena, according to various reports. He added that while the United States values both countries and Turkey’s ambassador has a close relationship with Donald Trump, Washington cannot bridge all the gaps between them. Even so, Goren said a military clash is not inevitable, because both sides understand that a physical confrontation is undesirable, even as they take the evolving situation, the threats and the rhetoric seriously. He linked Erdogan’s timing to the pause in Israeli attacks in Lebanon after Trump’s instruction and to a meeting of Mediterranean forum foreign ministers that excludes Turkey and includes Greece, Cyprus and Israel, countries Ankara views as growing closer.