Turkish Opposition Figure Says Ankara Is Preparing for War, With Israel as Likely Target

Exiled Turkish opposition figure and journalist Abdullah Bozkurt, founder and editor of the investigative site Nordic Monitor, argued in a new article that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government is taking a series of steps that amount to a gradual preparation for war. In his view, Israel is emerging as the most likely future adversary, although Ankara has not formally declared it an enemy.

Bozkurt said the evidence includes regulatory changes, the expansion of presidential emergency powers, rapid development of missile and drone capabilities, and increasingly harsh statements about Israel by senior Turkish officials. He highlighted a presidential regulation that took effect in May 2024 and significantly broadens the state’s authority to mobilize civilian resources, private companies, transport assets and citizens with specialized skills for war or crisis, allowing a quick shift into emergency mode without a formal declaration of war.

The article also pointed to Erdogan’s post-2016 purge of the Turkish military, when thousands of officers were dismissed or arrested, including many seen as pro-Western and pro-NATO. Bozkurt argued that this strengthened Erdogan’s control over the security establishment and reduced internal resistance to strategic decisions. He further claimed that Turkey has deepened ties with Hamas, allowed its members to operate from Turkish territory and granted some Turkish citizenship, while moving against Israeli activity in Turkey and turning a blind eye to jihadist and Iranian networks.

Bozkurt said that if Erdogan ever chose direct confrontation with Israel, Syria would be the most likely arena because Turkish and Israeli forces are both active there. He stressed that he has no proof Ankara has decided on war, only indicators of preparation and a strategic shift. The piece is an analysis by Nordic Monitor, not an official Turkish government position. Meanwhile, Erdogan has continued to escalate his rhetoric against Israel, saying this week that Israel’s actions in Syria and Lebanon also threaten Turkey’s security. A Turkish affairs expert speaking anonymously to ynet said the recent decisions were meant to tighten control over the army and could also be preventive against another coup attempt, adding that Bozkurt and other followers of Fethullah Gulen may also be trying to find allies in Israel.