El Niño Threatens Up to 20% Drop in Brazil's Coffee Harvest by 2026
The El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to reduce Brazil's coffee harvest by up to 20%, according to the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (Abic). Extreme heat and irregular rainfall have disrupted production, with the government crop agency Conab forecasting a large total output of 66.7 million 60-kg bags of Arabica, Robusta, and Conillon coffee varieties in 2026. However, worsening weather conditions during the El Niño cycle could significantly cut yields, said Abic CEO Celirio Inacio da Silva, who warned that a 15% to 20% loss would be very concerning under the current scenario.
Despite the grim forecast, coffee growers are better prepared than in previous El Niño events due to technological advances that enhance climate resilience. Investments in irrigation systems and other technologies have reduced dependency on increasingly erratic rainfall. Still, experts caution that El Niño will disrupt the coffee plant's biological cycle, especially during the flowering period in the second half of 2026, causing uneven flowering and harvest challenges that affect coffee quality.
The 2023/24 El Niño, combined with heatwaves and irregular rains, already lowered Brazil's 2024 coffee output from an initial government forecast of 58.8 million bags to 54.2 million. Arabica production rose marginally by 0.2%, while Conillon dropped by 5.9%. Unusual rainfall in southeastern Brazil delayed harvesting and caused significant fruit drop, impacting bean quality. Espírito Santo, Brazil's leading Robusta producer, also faced irregular weather, with longer dry spells and intense short rains, raising concerns that El Niño could extend drought and heat through January 2027, harming bean development.
While Conillon production is expected to decline 15% this year due to its natural biennial cycle, it is too early to assess El Niño's full impact on 2027. Heat above 27 degrees Celsius slows coffee metabolism, and at 35 degrees it stops entirely, causing damage often worse than water shortages, explained Luiz Carlos Bestianello, president of the large Cooabriel cooperative. Northern Brazil experienced more stable conditions, with Rondônia state anticipating a record 3 million bags, exceeding Conab's forecast. Robusta crops there are less vulnerable to El Niño effects due to widespread irrigation and water-based cooling systems, unlike many Arabica farms that still lack irrigation, noted Juan Trabain, president of the state coffee association Caferon.
