Nearly Half of Opposition Supporters Prioritize Replacing Netanyahu Over Draft Law Resolution
As the legislative deal between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and ultra-Orthodox parties nears completion ahead of the Knesset's dissolution, a Channel 13 News poll reveals that 48% of opposition supporters consider replacing Netanyahu's government more important than resolving the ultra-Orthodox military draft issue. Meanwhile, 29% prioritize forming a coalition that addresses draft evasion.
The poll also examined public confidence in Netanyahu respecting election results following statements by President Isaac Herzog, Shin Bet chief David Zini, and Election Committee Chair Noam Solberg emphasizing election integrity, alongside the government's declaration it would not comply with a Supreme Court ruling. Forty-seven percent believe Netanyahu will honor the election outcome, while 36% doubt it. Among Netanyahu opponents and undecided voters, 33% expect him to accept defeat, but 41% think he will not. Conversely, 51% believe current opposition leaders would respect election results if they lose, compared to 41% who disagree. Among coalition supporters, only 19% think the opposition would accept defeat, with 63% expecting otherwise.
Regarding the judicial reform, 64% of coalition supporters back Justice Minister Yariv Levin's original plan, with only 5% opposing it. Opposition supporters largely reject the reform, with 78% against and 3% in favor. Among voters unaffiliated with any bloc, including supporters of Benny Gantz, smaller parties, and undecided voters, 29% support the reform, 51% are neutral, and 21% oppose it.
Additionally, a new coalition probability index based on recent polls analyzed by Shmuel Rosner indicates Netanyahu's coalition has less than a 9% chance of securing the 61 mandates needed to form a government. The opposition parties excluding Arab factions have a 22% chance, which rises to 56.5% if the Ra'am party is included. The poll was conducted by HaMidah in collaboration with Stat-Net, HaMidgam Project, and Askaria, with statistical advice from Professor David Steinberg.
