Expert Warns Iran's Toll Demand at Strait of Hormuz Could Reshape Global Trade Order
Dr. Ilan Gildin, head of a hedge fund and partner at Karni Family Offices, told Globes that Iran's insistence on charging tolls for oil tankers and commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz could represent a historic shift in global trade dynamics. Since World War II, maritime trade routes have generally remained free, with the United States ensuring their security as the global superpower. Gildin explained that if Iran succeeds in imposing tariffs at this strategic chokepoint, it could set a precedent for similar actions at other critical maritime passages like the Strait of Malacca or the Strait of Gibraltar, disrupting the entire world order.
He emphasized that the U.S. cannot afford to appear weak by allowing Iran to collect such tolls, as the global trade system relies on American naval power to keep sea routes open and functioning. Recognizing a country's right to levy fees at such a vital point would constitute a fundamental change in the global order, something even the current U.S. administration under President Trump is unwilling to accept.
Gildin also addressed recent fluctuations in oil prices, noting that although supply was reduced by about 13-14 million barrels during the conflict, Gulf states managed to compensate for roughly half of that. The main reason prices did not spike above $120 per barrel and even declined was China's significant reduction in oil imports by 4-5 million barrels, an unexpected move that helped stabilize the market. This development signals China's growing influence in setting global oil prices, a role traditionally held by OPEC.
Furthermore, Gildin suggested that if maritime trade routes become subject to tolls, shipping insurance costs will rise, potentially making overland trade routes more economically viable and safer. China, having invested heavily in Central Asian land corridors and possessing vast oil reserves exceeding 15 billion barrels, could become the primary beneficiary of disruptions in maritime transport caused by Iran's toll demands.
The article also notes that Globes maintains a respectful and diverse discourse policy, filtering out any violent, racist, or inappropriate language automatically.
