Iran Threatens to Close Strait of Hormuz Unless Granted Exclusive Control Ahead of Doha Talks

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has warned mediators that it will close the Strait of Hormuz again if exclusive control over the strategic waterway is not guaranteed in upcoming talks in Doha, according to sources cited by The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday night. The IRGC demands that the United States and other countries abandon plans to escort ships through the southern route near Oman, which is supported by Washington. The IRGC views the Strait of Hormuz as a critical strategic and economic asset and seeks to establish a toll system for vessels passing through, claiming the fees would cover security and environmental protection costs. Iranian officials privately estimate this mechanism could generate around $40 billion annually.

This threat coincides with statements from Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who said Iran has exported over 40 million barrels of oil since the maritime blockade was lifted and warned that Tehran will respond if the US tries to block its oil sales. "If the US wants to fight, we also know how to fight," Ghalibaf said, adding that no one would benefit from oil if Iran is prevented from selling it.

The IRGC's insistence on controlling the strait appears to outweigh even the release of frozen Iranian funds abroad. One recent attack targeted a ship carrying about two million barrels of Qatari oil, a key mediator between Iran and the US, signaling the IRGC's readiness to jeopardize peace talks if its position is not maintained. Due to recent US strikes on Iranian maritime facilities, planned talks in Switzerland were postponed and relocated to Doha. Despite agreement to resume negotiations, the IRGC reiterated that no ships would be allowed passage through the strait without their consent. Ship traffic through the strait has dropped sharply from 75 vessels last Wednesday to just 22 on Sunday, according to Kpler data.

Ghalibaf also stated that Iran is no longer conducting new negotiations with the US beyond implementing a memorandum of understanding's five main points. He warned that if the US refuses to comply, Iran is prepared for war. A joint committee of Iranian and US representatives has been formed to monitor the end of the Lebanon conflict, but further steps depend on full US compliance. Internally, a power struggle in Tehran threatens the talks' continuation. The civilian camp led by President Masoud Pezeshkian prioritizes releasing billions of frozen assets to aid Iran's economy, while the IRGC pushes for full control over the Strait of Hormuz, even at the cost of derailing negotiations. Pezeshkian seeks the release of $6 billion out of $12 billion held in Qatar to help rebuild the economy damaged by sanctions and war. The IRGC sees control of the strait as Iran's strongest bargaining chip and a way to dominate both US relations and internal politics. This division highlights that many issues from the June 17 principles agreement remain unresolved, and progress on sensitive topics like Iran's nuclear program remains distant.