Analysis Finds No Clear Link Between Bennett's Gains and Likud's Losses in Polls

MK Merav Cohen of the Yesh Atid party claimed that when Naftali Bennett's party gains in polls, Likud correspondingly loses support. This assertion was made in response to a recent Maariv poll showing Bennett's party, Yachdut, gaining one seat to 19, while Likud lost one seat, dropping to 21. However, a detailed review of five polls over the past month reveals a more complex picture.

Between early June and early July, Bennett's party actually lost four seats, declining from 20 to 16 mandates, while Likud also weakened slightly from 25 to 24 mandates. This simultaneous decline contradicts the claim that Bennett's rise directly causes Likud's fall. Moreover, the overall opposition bloc's strength remained relatively stable, decreasing by only 0.4 seats from 66.6 to 66.2 mandates, indicating that Bennett's losses did not significantly harm the opposition coalition.

Interestingly, the seats lost by Bennett's party mostly shifted to the party led by Gadi Eizenkot, which gained three seats, along with smaller gains by Israel Beytenu, the Democrats, and the Religious Zionist Party. Nonetheless, in the last two weeks, a pattern consistent with Cohen's claim was observed: when Bennett gained a seat, Likud lost one, and vice versa. Despite this short-term correlation, the broader monthly data does not support a consistent inverse relationship.

No response was received from MK Merav Cohen regarding this analysis. The conclusion is that while some short-term fluctuations align with her statement, overall, her claim is inaccurate based on the wider polling data from the past month.